Pearce – Australia 2028

I also wonder how would One Nation fare with British Immigrants given this seat seems to have the highest percentage of people born in England in the country?

@Marh

British migrants (like any migrant group) aren’t a homogenous blob, my Dad and grandparents are originally from England, my Dad’s VERY left, while my Grandad votes One Nation (Grandma would too if she were still alive)

So hard to tell from that alone – a government employee originally from Brighton is going to vote VERY differently to a plumber originally from Derby.

@Marh, I reckon a good predictor of the Labor to One Nation swing is the Labor 2PP vs yes vote at the voice referendum. They may be more socially conservative but vote along economic lines. The Liberals in 2025 falsely assumed that disaffected working-class Labor voters who voted no to the voice would switch to them, when referendum was a non-issue by 2025.

Many see themselves as working class because they don’t work in an office or don’t have a degree, have a migrant background and/or because of what their parents did for a living. This might hold even when they are small business owners or earn more than the average degree holder.

@Votante regarding the Labor 2PP vs yes vote at the voice referendum, you also have to take into account that an average No Labor Voter in Blaxland is mostly likely not going to be the same average No Labor Voter in Brand since the former only mostly reluctantly voted No as they are a non white immigrant whereas the latter probably voted seriously No since they are more likely a Anglo.

I agree that there are differing reasons for a Labor voter to vote No to the voice.

The Labor-held seats that had the highest No votes were generally outer-suburban, semi-rural or regional – Pearce, Spence, Hunter and Blair. Such electorates have a high percentage of people who are Australian-born and/or Anglo.

The % No vote in most lower socio-economic, multicultural Labor seats were close to the national average.

Votante is correct, Ethnic Working Class seats like Blaxland, Calwell, Gorton and Scullin were close to national average and often better than seats like Cook and Moore which are wealthier and more Anglo. Pearce had a very high No (Higher than National and statewide) and no booth had even 45% Yes vote while low SES Ethnic seats often had Yes voting booths even in deproved area. Alkmos, Englinton are Millenial Central but had booths that were over 60% No voting. This is one reason i see it as one of the most at risk seats for Labor.

* i meant that this is seat prone to flipping not that Voice Referendum will mean that it will flip. I think Nationalism will resonate here.